Airline irregular ops automation

Context

An airline builds the case for automating irregular ops rebooking. The value is realized during disruptions (storms, IROPs), so the annual value swings with how bad the disruption year is, which no one can forecast.

The decision

Present the range, the annual value band (disruption frequency) is wide, so fund on the downside positive band rather than a point estimate tied to an average year.

What most miss

The case is built on an 'average' disruption year that never happens; the value is lumpy, and the honest case funds on the band that stays positive even in a mild year.

Stakes

Justify the spend on a heavy disruption year and a mild one leaves the case underwater.