AI tutoring rollout across a district

Context

A school district builds the business case for an AI tutoring rollout. The value is real but back loaded, it only lands once teachers embed it and students use it, and that ramp in a district is slow and uncertain.

The decision

Present the range, not the point, the tornado shows adoption ramp swings the NPV more than any cost line, so fund conditional on the ramp, not the plan number.

What most miss

Education cases over index on the annual value estimate; the real uncertainty is the adoption ramp, and a slow ramp quietly halves the three year value.

Stakes

Funding on a single optimistic NPV and missing the ramp turns a 'positive' case negative by year two.