LB-03 · Live build
Model Evaluation and Threshold Economics
Choose a decision threshold and see which mistakes it trades for review cost. The model is trained in this browser on disclosed synthetic data.
Current decision
$21,832.00 above the lowest-cost evaluated point
At threshold 0.500, 101 flags require review and 63 synthetic fraud cases are missed. Lower cost is only one part of an operating policy.
- Selected operating cost
- $27,268.00
- Lowest evaluated cost
- $5,436.00
- Threshold 0.110
- Review / missed-loss split
- $808.00 / $26,460.00
Operate the decision
Counts and costs update together. The markers on the curves use this same threshold.
Fraud caught (TP)
85
False alarms (FP)
16
Fraud missed (FN)
63
Clean passed (TN)
1036
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Precision | 84.16% | Fraud caught / all flags |
| Recall | 57.43% | Fraud caught / all synthetic fraud |
| Review cost | $808.00 | 101 flags × $8.00 |
| Missed-fraud loss | $26,460.00 | 63 misses × $420.00 |
| Total operating cost | $27,268.00 | Review cost + missed-fraud loss |
Baseline to current decision
Pinned threshold 0.500 with $8.00 per review and $420.00 per miss: $27,268.00.
Current cost change: 0.00 USD; flags 0; missed cases 0.
The comparison includes any changed cost assumptions. It is not a claim that the threshold alone caused the cost difference.
What the threshold costs
Solid ink: total. Dashed blue: review cost. Dotted red: missed losses. The gold line is selected; green marks the lowest evaluated cost.
Read threshold curve values
| Threshold | Review cost | Missed loss | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.010 | $8,152.00 | $0.00 | $8,152.00 |
| 0.020 | $6,624.00 | $420.00 | $7,044.00 |
| 0.030 | $5,592.00 | $1,260.00 | $6,852.00 |
| 0.040 | $4,848.00 | $2,100.00 | $6,948.00 |
| 0.050 | $4,232.00 | $2,100.00 | $6,332.00 |
| 0.060 | $3,752.00 | $2,940.00 | $6,692.00 |
| 0.070 | $3,400.00 | $2,940.00 | $6,340.00 |
| 0.080 | $3,112.00 | $2,940.00 | $6,052.00 |
| 0.090 | $2,840.00 | $2,940.00 | $5,780.00 |
| 0.100 | $2,664.00 | $2,940.00 | $5,604.00 |
| 0.110 | $2,496.00 | $2,940.00 | $5,436.00 |
| 0.120 | $2,352.00 | $3,780.00 | $6,132.00 |
| 0.130 | $2,248.00 | $4,620.00 | $6,868.00 |
| 0.140 | $2,168.00 | $4,620.00 | $6,788.00 |
| 0.150 | $2,104.00 | $5,040.00 | $7,144.00 |
| 0.160 | $1,992.00 | $5,880.00 | $7,872.00 |
| 0.170 | $1,920.00 | $5,880.00 | $7,800.00 |
| 0.180 | $1,832.00 | $7,560.00 | $9,392.00 |
| 0.190 | $1,800.00 | $7,980.00 | $9,780.00 |
| 0.200 | $1,768.00 | $8,400.00 | $10,168.00 |
| 0.210 | $1,680.00 | $8,820.00 | $10,500.00 |
| 0.220 | $1,632.00 | $9,240.00 | $10,872.00 |
| 0.230 | $1,584.00 | $9,240.00 | $10,824.00 |
| 0.240 | $1,536.00 | $9,660.00 | $11,196.00 |
| 0.250 | $1,488.00 | $10,920.00 | $12,408.00 |
| 0.260 | $1,432.00 | $11,760.00 | $13,192.00 |
| 0.270 | $1,368.00 | $13,020.00 | $14,388.00 |
| 0.280 | $1,328.00 | $13,440.00 | $14,768.00 |
| 0.290 | $1,272.00 | $14,280.00 | $15,552.00 |
| 0.300 | $1,264.00 | $14,700.00 | $15,964.00 |
| 0.310 | $1,256.00 | $14,700.00 | $15,956.00 |
| 0.320 | $1,232.00 | $15,120.00 | $16,352.00 |
| 0.330 | $1,176.00 | $16,380.00 | $17,556.00 |
| 0.340 | $1,144.00 | $16,380.00 | $17,524.00 |
| 0.350 | $1,120.00 | $16,800.00 | $17,920.00 |
| 0.360 | $1,080.00 | $18,060.00 | $19,140.00 |
| 0.370 | $1,056.00 | $18,900.00 | $19,956.00 |
| 0.380 | $1,016.00 | $20,160.00 | $21,176.00 |
| 0.390 | $1,000.00 | $20,580.00 | $21,580.00 |
| 0.400 | $984.00 | $21,000.00 | $21,984.00 |
| 0.410 | $960.00 | $21,420.00 | $22,380.00 |
| 0.420 | $944.00 | $22,260.00 | $23,204.00 |
| 0.430 | $928.00 | $23,100.00 | $24,028.00 |
| 0.440 | $904.00 | $23,520.00 | $24,424.00 |
| 0.450 | $888.00 | $23,940.00 | $24,828.00 |
| 0.460 | $864.00 | $24,360.00 | $25,224.00 |
| 0.470 | $856.00 | $24,780.00 | $25,636.00 |
| 0.480 | $848.00 | $25,200.00 | $26,048.00 |
| 0.490 | $824.00 | $26,040.00 | $26,864.00 |
| 0.500 | $808.00 | $26,460.00 | $27,268.00 |
| 0.510 | $784.00 | $27,300.00 | $28,084.00 |
| 0.520 | $776.00 | $27,300.00 | $28,076.00 |
| 0.530 | $768.00 | $27,720.00 | $28,488.00 |
| 0.540 | $744.00 | $28,140.00 | $28,884.00 |
| 0.550 | $712.00 | $28,560.00 | $29,272.00 |
| 0.560 | $696.00 | $29,400.00 | $30,096.00 |
| 0.570 | $688.00 | $29,400.00 | $30,088.00 |
| 0.580 | $672.00 | $30,240.00 | $30,912.00 |
| 0.590 | $648.00 | $31,080.00 | $31,728.00 |
| 0.600 | $640.00 | $31,500.00 | $32,140.00 |
| 0.610 | $624.00 | $31,500.00 | $32,124.00 |
| 0.620 | $616.00 | $31,920.00 | $32,536.00 |
| 0.630 | $600.00 | $31,920.00 | $32,520.00 |
| 0.640 | $600.00 | $31,920.00 | $32,520.00 |
| 0.650 | $600.00 | $31,920.00 | $32,520.00 |
| 0.660 | $584.00 | $32,760.00 | $33,344.00 |
| 0.670 | $576.00 | $33,180.00 | $33,756.00 |
| 0.680 | $544.00 | $34,440.00 | $34,984.00 |
| 0.690 | $536.00 | $34,860.00 | $35,396.00 |
| 0.700 | $528.00 | $35,280.00 | $35,808.00 |
| 0.710 | $528.00 | $35,280.00 | $35,808.00 |
| 0.720 | $520.00 | $35,700.00 | $36,220.00 |
| 0.730 | $512.00 | $36,120.00 | $36,632.00 |
| 0.740 | $504.00 | $36,540.00 | $37,044.00 |
| 0.750 | $488.00 | $37,380.00 | $37,868.00 |
| 0.760 | $472.00 | $38,220.00 | $38,692.00 |
| 0.770 | $472.00 | $38,220.00 | $38,692.00 |
| 0.780 | $456.00 | $38,640.00 | $39,096.00 |
| 0.790 | $448.00 | $39,060.00 | $39,508.00 |
| 0.800 | $432.00 | $39,900.00 | $40,332.00 |
| 0.810 | $424.00 | $40,320.00 | $40,744.00 |
| 0.820 | $408.00 | $41,160.00 | $41,568.00 |
| 0.830 | $384.00 | $42,420.00 | $42,804.00 |
| 0.840 | $360.00 | $43,680.00 | $44,040.00 |
| 0.850 | $336.00 | $44,520.00 | $44,856.00 |
| 0.860 | $312.00 | $45,780.00 | $46,092.00 |
| 0.870 | $296.00 | $46,620.00 | $46,916.00 |
| 0.880 | $296.00 | $46,620.00 | $46,916.00 |
| 0.890 | $280.00 | $47,460.00 | $47,740.00 |
| 0.900 | $256.00 | $48,720.00 | $48,976.00 |
| 0.910 | $232.00 | $49,980.00 | $50,212.00 |
| 0.920 | $208.00 | $51,240.00 | $51,448.00 |
| 0.930 | $200.00 | $51,660.00 | $51,860.00 |
| 0.940 | $176.00 | $52,920.00 | $53,096.00 |
| 0.950 | $144.00 | $54,600.00 | $54,744.00 |
| 0.960 | $64.00 | $58,800.00 | $58,864.00 |
| 0.970 | $40.00 | $60,060.00 | $60,100.00 |
| 0.980 | $24.00 | $60,900.00 | $60,924.00 |
| 0.990 | $16.00 | $61,320.00 | $61,336.00 |
Ranking quality, precision/recall and calibration explain the model. The threshold decision remains above.